Quarterly Market Risk Outlook (MAC)

In this webinar, Christoph Schon explores how renewed focus on US monetary policy has altered global multi-asset portfolio risk profiles. He explains why the UK faces the G7's highest borrowing costs and how it compares to the 2022 Truss/Kwarteng crisis.

Christoph presents stress tests assessing France's government collapse impact on European markets and evaluates what threats to Federal Reserve independence could mean for portfolio managers.

Key findings:

• While markets celebrate potential rate cuts, investor reaction will depend on the Fed's reasoning – whether inflation is moderating or the economy is weakening. A politically motivated 300-basis-point cut could trigger severe losses across US assets
• France's political turmoil follows a familiar pattern of widening OAT-Bund spreads, falling bank shares, and euro weakness – markets had already priced in elevated risk since June's snap election
• Rising correlations between stocks, bonds, and currencies amid Fed optimism are limiting diversification opportunities for multi-asset investors

Speaker

Christoph Schon, Head of Investment Decision Research, EMEA, SimCorp